Dogecoin About to Explode? On-Chain Models Indicate a Major Price Rise

Alphractal, an analytics platform, announced a new chart package and methodological notes on X on August 21, a set of emerging market structure and on-chain signals suggesting that Dogecoin may be preparing for a new advance. The company argues that the resilience of miners, the "Network Stress Index" stabilizing, and the bands derived from models like Alpha Price and CVDD have lined up in a way that historically has led to major trend accelerations of DOGE. Has Dogecoin 1 USD Bounced Back? Alphractal stated that: "Dogecoin miners remain extremely resilient, with hashrate activity aiming for record highs," before posing the core question for his latest research: "Does trading around the Realized Market Average Price and models like Alpha Price and CVDD pave the way for the possibility of reaching new record highs for DOGE?"

The basis of this call is a composite measure that the company calls the Network Stress Index. This index combines three aspects of chain health and pressure—"Fee Stress (fee/market cap – 40% weighting), Hash Stress (30-day hash rate volatility – 30% weighting), [and] Supply Stress (seven-day active supply volatility – 30% weighting)." As Alphractal summarizes in the analysis report: "Higher values indicate potential instability or significant shifts. Lower values reflect a balanced network across economic, security, and operational aspects." In the current mode, the company states that this indicator "signals stability — showing no warning signs of network risk."

In addition to the raw network conditions, Alphractal also employs two pricing tools and cycles that they consider reliable for UTXO chains such as DOGE, Bitcoin, and Litecoin. "Our Alpha Price model acts as a magnet for sentiment," the company notes, describing a behavioral anchor that prices tend to follow over time. This combines with the adjusted version of Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD), an indicator that tracks the value over time of coins moving on-chain. Alphractal wrote: "Our advanced adjusted CVDD has proven to be one of the most accurate tools for identifying peaks and troughs in UTXO blockchains like DOGE, BTC, and LTC."

The position of these models is currently the focus of the thesis. The article states: "Currently, the CVDD peak is at $0.54, but it could rise higher as Dogecoin is moving from a dormant state - potentially pushing the target above $1." This clearly implies that if a price surge attracts supply that has been inactive for a long time, the upper band will increase, turning $0.54 from a ceiling into what Alphractal calls "just the starting floor, with network activity excitement driving the next upward momentum."

The company views the position of miners as a solid pillar. With hashrate activity "approaching record highs", the perspective is that security spending and miner participation will help the network position itself well "for the increase in global demand". That strength, along with price action concentrated near what Alphractal calls the True Market Mean Price (True Market Mean Price), is reflected as a setup phase before previous Dogecoin expansions on the attached Network Stress, Alpha Price, and CVDD charts dated August 21. However, this message is not entirely optimistic. Alphractal ends the article with a risk warning adjusted to the current microstructure of the cryptocurrency market: "This opportunity may be sustainable… However, with leverage increasing across cryptocurrency markets, traders need to be cautious of sudden traps and mass liquidation as DOGE is on the rise." In other words, although the complex model outlines a positive context, positioning dynamics and derivative products could cause sharp downward shocks along the way. Overall, Alphractal's project provides a simple, verifiable roadmap: a stable network, resilient miners, and price adjustments based on historically significant on-chain bands will create room for appreciation, with the "CVDD Peak" currently marked at $0.54 and potentially automatically rising to "above $1" if latent supply is awakened. Whether Dogecoin can translate that setup into a complete breakout will depend on the interaction between organic spot demand and a leverage market that is susceptible to sudden squeezes in both directions.