#美联储货币政策# Recently, I followed Barclays' analysis report, which suggests that Powell is unlikely to change his hawkish stance due to employment data. This reminds me of my experience following a stock trading expert in the US stock market. At that time, the market generally expected the Fed to ease policies, but that expert insisted on shorting, arguing that the employment market remained strong. As a result, he accurately predicted the Fed's direction and made a significant profit.

The situation this time is somewhat similar. Although job growth slowed in July, the unemployment rate still remains low at 4.2%. The market seems to be overly optimistic about a rate cut in September. I think that copying trading long positions in US stocks might carry considerable risk now, and perhaps we should look for some shorting opportunities. However, we still need to wait for Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting before making a final decision. After all, in real trading, one wrong step could lead to total loss. Staying cautious and observant, while being ready to adjust strategies at any time, is the key to surviving in the market in the long run.