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Today's market is promising, with a rebound in the cryptocurrency sector. Ethereum (ETH) is leading the charge, driving many small market capitalization coins upward. Notably, the proportion of long-term holders (holding period over 1 year) has risen to 61.64%, which indicates that the market may maintain a favorable trend for some time.
The biggest positive news recently is that the U.S. 401(k) retirement accounts have been approved to invest in encryption assets. This move marks the official entry of cryptocurrency into the U.S. pension system, which has milestone significance for its legitimacy, liquidity, and market sentiment.
However, we need to maintain a rational perspective on this. It is expected that allocating 1%-2% of retirement portfolios to encryption assets may be a more reasonable proportion. However, from a practical implementation standpoint, the earliest we might see actual positions in a few large 401(k) plans could be in the first half of 2026, while significant inflows of large funds may not increase markedly until the second half of 2026 to 2027.
It is worth noting that the entry of such long-term capital does not follow the traditional strategies of "waiting for the bear market to enter" or "pouring in at the peak of the bull market." On the contrary, they are likely to slowly enter the market over the next 12 to 36 months, or even longer. Therefore, although this policy change has far-reaching effects on the encryption market, its impact will mainly be felt in the next 2-4 years, rather than at present.
Overall, the encryption market is undergoing a positive transformation, and the long-term investment outlook is encouraging. However, investors should remain vigilant, closely monitor market trends, and manage risks effectively.