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Line teaching, how to determine the accumulation state before the trend market starts.
There are two forces competing in the market: bulls and bears.
When both sides are in a state of equilibrium, the price trend is in a range-bound fluctuation; when there is a disparity and supply and demand are out of balance, the price trend is in a unidirectional trend market.
The trends of the world are such that what has long been united must eventually divide, and what has long been divided must eventually unite. We view range fluctuations as a price trend characterized by the accumulation of volume, while we see a one-sided trend as a price trend characterized by the release of capacity. These two are interconvertible and repeat in cycles: after a period of consolidation, there is a trend release, and after a trend release, there is a period of consolidation, continuing this infinite loop.
It is said that the horizontal length and vertical height indicate that the magnitude of the consolidation in a volatile trend determines the duration of the trend. Therefore, to capture the trend, one should first pay attention to the consolidation situation in the volatile trend.
What are the forms of oscillating accumulation?
First, let’s define the oscillating accumulation trend. Theoretically, any trend located between a previous high and a previous low can be regarded as a type of oscillating accumulation trend, such as: the engulfing pattern is the most typical oscillating accumulation candlestick combination, pullbacks in an uptrend, rebounds in a downtrend, rectangles, converging triangles, etc.
Accumulation is not only a sideways fluctuation; pullbacks in an uptrend and rebounds in a downtrend are also forms of accumulation. Rising wedges and falling wedges are also accumulations, and disordered range fluctuations are a form of accumulation as well. However, we should focus on those accumulation patterns that have clear, orderly, and rule-based boundaries, such as engulfing patterns, rectangles, and converging triangles.
The volume accumulation of the oscillation consolidation pattern varies in size, and we mainly assess its strength from two dimensions.
1. Time Span
2. Pullback Strength
The time span refers to the duration of price movement, for example: within the same time period, 10 K-lines will definitely have a longer duration than 5 K-lines. Theoretically, the time span of 10 K-lines should be stronger than that of 5 K-lines.
The pullback strength refers to the magnitude of the market trend's pullback. For example, a pullback of 50% in an upward trend is definitely larger than a pullback of 20%. Theoretically, a larger pullback magnitude indicates stronger accumulation than a smaller one. However, extreme conditions can lead to the opposite effect; if the pullback exceeds 50%, it may be too large, potentially leading to a reversal.
Whether it is the time span or the magnitude of the pullback, there must be a measurement; if it is too large or too small, it will affect the quality of the accumulation. In actual analysis, the accumulation pattern is comprehensively analyzed based on these two dimensions to determine whether the accumulation is sufficient. The so-called sufficient means whether the adjustment is adequate and whether the degree of risk release is sufficient.
Comparison between N-type and rectangular, simple callback and complex callback, as shown in the figure below:
In comparison to the N-type, under the same amplitude, the time span of the rectangle is longer than that of the N-type. The trading density of the rectangle is greater, and the accumulated volume is larger. Once it breaks through the resistance level, the trend momentum of the rectangle is often stronger than that of the N-type.
A comparison between simple pullbacks and complex pullbacks shows that with the same amplitude, simple pullbacks have a shorter time span, while complex pullbacks have a longer time span. Therefore, the risk released by complex pullbacks is more substantial than that released by simple pullbacks. Once the price begins to recover and rise, theoretically, the trend of complex pullbacks will be more persistent.
Next, let's share a simple and practical accumulation pattern from real combat: rectangle.
A rectangle is a range oscillation and sideways movement, which is a relatively common accumulation pattern in price trends. The mnemonic for identifying and trading it is: one high and one low + breakout.
A high refers to the resistance level of a range, a low refers to the support level of a range, and a breakout refers to the breakout of the range, which is the entry point.
For example:
In an upward trend, when the price falls back from a high point, it establishes a high point of a range, and the low point of the pullback establishes a low point of the range. In the future market, go long when the price breaks above the high point of the range, and exit or consider shorting when it falls below the low point of the range.
Case Appreciation: