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Recently, the financial market's expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates are strengthening. The latest CME "Fed Watch" data reveals the market's views on the future direction of the Fed's monetary policy.
According to reports, CME data shows that the market predicts a 89.1% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September this year, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is only 10.9%. This data reflects the strong expectations of market participants for the Fed to soon adopt a loose monetary policy.
Looking ahead to October, market expectations are further diverging. Data shows that the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates steady in October has fallen to 3.4%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 35.6%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points has risen to 60.9%. This indicates that the market generally believes the Fed may continue to cut rates in the short term.
These data reflect the market's concerns about the economic outlook and expectations that the Fed may adopt a more accommodative monetary policy to support economic growth. However, it is important to note that these probability forecasts may change with the development of new economic data and global events.
Investors and market analysts are closely watching the statements of Fed officials and the upcoming economic data to look for further policy clues. The decisions made by the Fed will have a significant impact on global financial markets, including stocks, bonds, and the cryptocurrency market.
As the market's expectations for the Fed's monetary policy continue to evolve, investors should remain vigilant and be prepared for various possibilities.