This Week's Macroeconomic Review and Outlook: The Market is Still in the Game Stage, and the Trend is Not Yet Clear

1. Macroeconomic Review of This Week

1. Market Overview

This week, market sentiment is at a cyclical low. The S&P 500 index of U.S. stocks has fallen below the 200-day moving average, triggering sell-offs from CTA strategies, but the sell-off is nearing its end. The volatility index VIX remains elevated above 20, with an increasing Put/Call ratio reflecting higher levels of market panic.

The cryptocurrency market is minimally affected by reserve policies and is mainly influenced by the overall contraction in risk appetite, performing moderately.

2. Economic Data Analysis

The manufacturing PMI new orders index has fallen below the threshold line, and the employment index is lower than expected, indicating that the manufacturing sector is becoming cautious due to the impact of tariffs. The non-manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations, suggesting that the service industry remains relatively robust.

GDP forecast revised down to -2.4%, but mainly dragged down by net exports, while consumer spending remains stable.

Employment data shows divergence, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate, a slowdown in job growth, and limited wage growth, indicating that companies prefer to extend working hours rather than create new positions.

3. Federal Reserve Policy and Liquidity

The Federal Reserve Chairman stated that he prefers to take a cautious wait-and-see approach until tariff policies become clear. The 2% inflation target remains central, and a short-term rise in inflation will not prompt interest rate hikes. If employment continues to slow, the possibility of rate cuts may increase.

The Federal Reserve's liquidity has marginally improved, but market sentiment remains weak. Short-term interest rates have fallen, with the market betting on future rate cuts, while long-term interest rates have turned upward, alleviating recession expectations.

2. Macroeconomic Outlook for Next Week

The market is still in the expectation game phase, and the trend is unclear. Institutional funds tend to be cautious, making it difficult to form a clear direction in the short term.

Attention should be paid to the micro changes in economic data from March to April. The impacts of tariffs, government layoffs, and interest rates are lagging, and trend confirmation requires more data support.

One should not be overly pessimistic; the economy has not significantly worsened. Investors should manage their positions well, maintain a balance between offense and defense, and wait for clearer signals.

Next week, pay attention to data such as CPI, PPI, and consumer confidence index to assess changes in inflation and consumption trends.