Recently, the sentiment in the crypto market has shown significant fluctuation, with the fear and greed index having returned to neutral levels. Market observers have noted two key indicators: ETF data and the proportion of long-term holding coins. In particular, the rate of decline in the proportion of long-term held coins (over 1 year) has exceeded expectations, which may become the first indicator signaling a market top.

From a conservative perspective, there are currently two key price levels that could trigger a shift from bull to bear: the short-term holder cost line (approximately 105,890) and the daily trend line (approximately 106,128). If the Bitcoin price falls below 105,800, it may indicate a shift in the market towards a bear market.

Nevertheless, the current market is still expected to fluctuate between 110,000 and 116,000, waiting for the next opportunity. Investors should remain vigilant and be ready to respond to market changes.

The latest data shows that the proportion of long-term holding coins (over 1 year) is 60.58%. When it falls below 58%, it will enter a high-risk zone. Meanwhile, the Ahr999X index is 2.73, which is considered suitable for regular investment when it is greater than 9.

In the face of the current market situation, investors need to closely monitor the changes in these key indicators and adjust their investment strategies based on their own risk tolerance. Regardless of how the market fluctuates, it is crucial to remain calm and rational.